Tarrington on the James
Methodology
This report analyzes 34 closed sales of homes with 4+ bedrooms and 2+ bathrooms in Tarrington on the James over a 24-month window (May 2024 through March 2026). An additional 16 3-bedroom sales and 6 lot/land parcels were excluded. Analysis proceeds in three layers:
Layer 1 — Vintage Cohort: Homes grouped into four build-era buckets (2004–2007, 2009–2013, 2014–2017, 2020–2024) to isolate the effect of construction era on $/SF.
Layer 2 — Size-Controlled Matrix: Each vintage cohort is cross-tabulated with three size tiers (under 3,500 SF, 3,500–4,500 SF, 4,500+ SF). This controls for the well-documented inverse relationship between home size and $/SF — larger homes trade at lower per-foot prices, which can mask the true vintage premium if not isolated.
Layer 3 — Sale-Year Comparison: The 24-month window is split into sales closed in calendar 2024 vs. 2025–2026 to detect market-level price movement independent of vintage or size.
Both mean and median are reported for every cell with n ≥ 2. Cells with n = 1 are flagged as "single data point" and excluded from comparative conclusions. Cells with n = 2 are flagged as "directional only."
Market Overview
Layer 1 — $/SF by Build-Era Cohort
The 2020–2024 cohort commands the highest average $/SF at $270, but the small sample (n=3) warrants caution.1 The three older cohorts cluster tightly at $218–$223 average, suggesting a relatively flat $/SF profile across 2004–2017 stock — with vintage premiums only emerging clearly for post-2020 construction.2
| Build Era | n | Avg SF | Avg Price | Avg $/SF | Median $/SF | Min | Max | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004–2007 | 17 | 4,760 | $1,057K | $223 | $224 | $180 | $276 | $96 |
| 2009–2013 | 9 | 4,626 | $973K | $221 | $219 | $150 | $269 | $119 |
| 2014–2017 | 5 | 3,888 | $815K | $218 | $232 | $155 | $260 | $105 |
| 2020–2024 | 3 | 3,686 | $968K | $270 | $263 | $212 | $334 | $122 |
Note: 2020–2024 cohort has n=3; conclusions are directional. All other cohorts have n ≥ 5.
Layer 2 — Size-Controlled $/SF Matrix
Raw vintage comparisons are misleading because older eras skew heavily toward 4,500+ SF homes (which naturally trade at lower $/SF). The matrix below holds size constant, revealing the true vintage premium at each size tier.
| Size Tier | 2004–2007 | 2009–2013 | 2014–2017 | 2020–2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3,500 SF | $262 avg / $262 medn=1 · single data point | $246 avg / $247 medn=3 | $256 avg / $256 medn=2 · directional | $334 avg / $334 medn=1 · single data pointnew construction outlier |
| 3,500–4,500 SF | $222 avg / $232 medn=7 | $232 avg / $214 medn=3 | $232 avg / $232 medn=1 · single data point | $238 avg / $238 medn=2 · directional |
| 4,500+ SF | $218 avg / $210 medn=9 | $186 avg / $189 medn=3 | $172 avg / $172 medn=2 · directional | —n=0 · no sales |
Key finding — the "volume discount" is real and large. Within the well-sampled 2004–2007 cohort, $/SF drops from $262 (under 3,500 SF, n=1) to $222 (3,500–4,500, n=7) to $218 (4,500+, n=9). Moving from a 3,000 SF home to a 5,000 SF home in the same era saves roughly $40/sf — equivalent to ~$200K on a 5,000 SF home.3
New construction premium is modest in the mid-size tier. At 3,500–4,500 SF, 2020–2024 homes averaged $238/sf vs. $222/sf for 2004–2007 homes — a 7% premium, or roughly $16/sf. That's $65K–$70K on a 4,100 SF home.4
Large homes (4,500+ SF) built 2009+ show declining $/SF. The 2009–2013 cohort averaged $186/sf and the 2014–2017 cohort $172/sf, both well below the 2004–2007 cohort at $218/sf. This likely reflects oversized homes built during a period of lower demand hitting the resale market at a steeper volume discount. The 8,334 SF home at 12901 Sodbury ($150/sf) and the 4,767 SF 12700 Edenfield ($155/sf) are particular outliers.5
Layer 3 — Sale-Year Comparison (2024 vs. 2025)
Splitting the dataset by calendar year of sale tests whether the market moved up, down, or sideways over the 24-month window. Overall, homes sold in 2025 traded at $229/sf avg vs. $215/sf in 2024 — a 6.5% increase.6 However, this is heavily confounded by composition: the 2024 subset includes two very large, low-$/SF sales (12901 Sodbury at $150/sf and 12700 Edenfield at $155/sf) that pull the average down.
| Period | n | Avg $/SF | Median $/SF | Avg Price | Avg SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sold in 2024 | 9 | $215 | $219 | $948K | 4,780 |
| Sold in 2025–26 | 25 | $229 | $227 | $994K | 4,329 |
By Vintage, Across Sale Years
| Build Era | Sold 2024 (n) | Sold 2024 Avg | Sold 2025 (n) | Sold 2025 Avg | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004–2007 | 2 | $248 | 15 | $219 | −$29 (n=2 in 2024) |
| 2009–2013 | 4 | $212 | 5 | $229 | +$17 |
| 2014–2017 | 3 | $199 | 2 | $246 | +$47 (n=2 in 2025) |
| 2020–2024 | 0 | — | 3 | $270 | — |
Market direction is modestly positive but noisy. The 2009–2013 cohort — the best-balanced split (4 vs. 5 sales) — shows a $17/sf increase from 2024 to 2025. The 2014–2017 delta of +$47 is inflated by composition effects with very small samples. The 2004–2007 cohort shows a −$29 apparent decline, but the 2024 base is only 2 sales (one of which, 4424 Hanwell at $252/sf, is a 6,657 SF estate that traded at an unusually high $/SF for its size). Not enough data to call a trend with confidence.7
All Qualifying Sales — 4BD+ / 2BA+
34 closed sales, sorted by date (most recent first). Size tier and build era shown for cross-reference to the matrix above.
| Address | Sold | Price | BD/BA | SF | Built | $/SF | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12636 Grendon Dr | Dec 2025 | $925,000 | 5/4.0 | 4,374 | 2004 | $211 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 13327 Ellerton Ter | Dec 2025 | $1,200,000 | 7/6.5 | 5,938 | 2007 | $202 | 4,500+ |
| 3901 Bircham Loop | Nov 2025 | $860,000 | 5/4.0 | 4,056 | 2020 | $212 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 4307 Wilcot Dr | Nov 2025 | $885,000 | 5/4.0 | 4,927 | 2007 | $180 | 4,500+ |
| 13307 Henlow Dr | Oct 2025 | $1,070,000 | 5/4.5 | 5,036 | 2006 | $212 | 4,500+ |
| 13001 Sodbury Dr | Oct 2025 | $950,000 | 5/3.5 | 4,100 | 2017 | $232 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 13301 Langford Dr | Oct 2025 | $775,000 | 4/3.5 | 4,306 | 2005 | $180 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 13424 Welby Ct | Oct 2025 | $979,900 | 5/4.0 | 4,215 | 2006 | $232 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 4054 Bircham Loop | Sep 2025 | $945,243 | 4/3.0 | 2,827 | 2024 | $334 | <3,500 |
| 13518 Kelham Rd | Sep 2025 | $1,100,000 | 6/5.0 | 4,176 | 2021 | $263 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 4406 Hanwell Ct | Sep 2025 | $1,200,000 | 6/4.5 | 4,984 | 2007 | $241 | 4,500+ |
| 3612 Edenfield Rd | Sep 2025 | $785,000 | 4/2.5 | 3,672 | 2009 | $214 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 3330 Handley Rd | Sep 2025 | $1,000,000 | 6/4.5 | 5,187 | 2007 | $193 | 4,500+ |
| 3412 Handley Rd | Sep 2025 | $1,300,000 | 6/5.5 | 6,887 | 2010 | $189 | 4,500+ |
| 13412 Ellerton Ct | Aug 2025 | $1,675,000 | 5/5.5 | 6,062 | 2006 | $276 | 4,500+ |
| 3006 Calcutt Dr | Aug 2025 | $974,950 | 5/4.5 | 4,207 | 2004 | $232 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 4001 Welby Dr | Aug 2025 | $1,000,000 | 4/4.0 | 5,018 | 2005 | $199 | 4,500+ |
| 3206 Fulbrook Dr | Jul 2025 | $1,200,000 | 5/4.5 | 4,469 | 2012 | $269 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 3700 Edenfield Rd | Jul 2025 | $805,000 | 4/3.5 | 3,256 | 2012 | $247 | <3,500 |
| 13445 Welby Mews | Jun 2025 | $1,200,000 | 5/4.5 | 5,726 | 2006 | $210 | 4,500+ |
| 3025 Markfield Dr | May 2025 | $642,000 | 4/2.5 | 2,454 | 2005 | $262 | <3,500 |
| 3712 Edenfield Rd | May 2025 | $705,000 | 4/3.5 | 3,103 | 2013 | $227 | <3,500 |
| 13303 Ellerton Ter | Apr 2025 | $1,000,000 | 5/4.5 | 4,271 | 2006 | $234 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 13415 Welby Mews | Apr 2025 | $850,000 | 4/3.5 | 3,793 | 2007 | $224 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 3642 Edenfield Rd | Apr 2025 | $685,000 | 4/2.5 | 2,637 | 2016 | $260 | <3,500 |
| 4424 Hanwell Ct | Dec 2024 | $1,675,000 | 6/5.5 | 6,657 | 2006 | $252 | 4,500+ |
| 12901 Sodbury Dr | Nov 2024 | $1,250,000 | 4/3.5 | 8,334 | 2013 | $150 | 4,500+ |
| 4307 Elmstone Rd | Oct 2024 | $1,165,000 | 5/5.0 | 5,319 | 2011 | $219 | 4,500+ |
| 12812 Yatesbury Ln | Sep 2024 | $750,000 | 4/3.0 | 2,830 | 2012 | $265 | <3,500 |
| 12700 Edenfield Ct | Sep 2024 | $739,900 | 4/3.0 | 4,767 | 2015 | $155 | 4,500+ |
| 12900 Bircham Ter | Aug 2024 | $940,000 | 5/3.5 | 4,938 | 2014 | $190 | 4,500+ |
| 3618 Edenfield Rd | Aug 2024 | $800,000 | 4/2.5 | 3,767 | 2009 | $212 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 3013 Hedgeway Pl | Jul 2024 | $913,000 | 4/3.5 | 3,762 | 2004 | $243 | 3.5–4.5K |
| 3507 Highbridge Dr | May 2024 | $760,000 | 4/2.5 | 3,000 | 2015 | $253 | <3,500 |
School Ratings
Tarrington feeds into Chesterfield County Public Schools. Verified via GreatSchools.org on April 18, 2026.
Redistricting risk: Chesterfield County redistricting is scheduled for Fall 2027. Current Robious Elementary → Robious Middle → James River High feeder pattern may shift. Verify assignments before closing.
Area Context
Tarrington on the James is a 710-home master-planned community in the Robious Road corridor of Midlothian, built between the mid-2000s and mid-2020s. The community sits along the James River with direct access to Robious Landing Park. Amenities include a clubhouse, fitness center, three pools, riverfront park with floating dock, walking trails, and pavilion. Census data shows approximately 3,355 residents with a median age of 52 and an average individual income of $87K. HOA fees across this dataset ranged from $79–$142/month.
Shopping and dining are concentrated about 4 miles east along Robious Road and Midlothian Turnpike: Kroger, Costco, Target, The Fresh Market, Chesterfield Towne Center. Route 288 access provides fast connections to I-64 and the broader Richmond metro.
Conclusions
1. The new-construction premium exists but is narrower than raw averages suggest. Controlling for size in the 3,500–4,500 SF tier, 2020–2024 homes trade at $238/sf vs. $222/sf for 2004–2007 homes — a 7% premium, not the 21% implied by the uncontrolled Layer 1 comparison ($270 vs. $223). Most of the apparent vintage gap is actually a size-mix artifact.3,4
2. The best value per square foot is in large (4,500+ SF) original-phase homes. The 2004–2007 / 4,500+ SF cell has n=9, the deepest in the matrix, and trades at $218/sf median $210/sf. A buyer targeting 5,000 SF of living space can expect to pay $1.0–$1.2M for a 2006–2007 build — roughly $180–$240/sf depending on lot, condition, and finishes.3
3. The 4054 Bircham Loop sale ($334/sf) is a statistical outlier. It's a 2024 new-construction home at 2,827 SF — the smallest qualifying sale in the dataset and the only post-2020 home under 3,500 SF. Excluding it drops the 2020–2024 cohort average from $270 to $238/sf. Do not use $270 or $334 as a benchmark for resale pricing.5
4. Market direction is modestly positive but not conclusive. Overall $/SF increased from $215 (2024 sales, n=9) to $229 (2025 sales, n=25), a 6.5% gain. But the 2024 subset includes two extreme low-$/SF outliers. Within the best-balanced vintage cohort (2009–2013), the move was +$17/sf (+8%), which is more credible as a directional signal.6,7
5. Schools are functional but not a differentiator. The 6/7/6 GreatSchools pipeline is average-to-above-average for Chesterfield County. Buyers prioritizing school ratings may find stronger options in the Midlothian HS or Cosby HS feeder patterns. Redistricting risk (Fall 2027) adds uncertainty.
Footnotes
1 2020–2024 cohort: 3 sales — 3901 Bircham Loop ($212/sf, 4,056 sf, built 2020), 13518 Kelham Rd ($263/sf, 4,176 sf, built 2021), 4054 Bircham Loop ($334/sf, 2,827 sf, built 2024). The $334/sf outlier is a new-construction home on a smaller lot. Excluding it yields $238/sf avg for the remaining two sales.
2 Cohort averages: 2004–2007 $223/sf (n=17), 2009–2013 $221/sf (n=9), 2014–2017 $218/sf (n=5). The $2–5/sf differences across these three eras are well within normal variance and should not be interpreted as a meaningful trend.
3 Size effect within 2004–2007: under 3,500 SF: $262/sf (n=1, directional); 3,500–4,500 SF: $222/sf avg, $232/sf median (n=7); 4,500+ SF: $218/sf avg, $210/sf median (n=9). The 3,500–4,500 to 4,500+ drop is only $4/sf on averages but $22/sf on medians, suggesting the average in the 3,500–4,500 tier is pulled down by the $180/sf sale at 13301 Langford Dr (4,306 sf, built 2005).
4 Size-controlled new vs. old comparison at 3,500–4,500 SF: 2004–2007 avg $222/sf (n=7) vs. 2020–2024 avg $238/sf (n=2). The 2020–2024 cell has only 2 sales (3901 Bircham at $212/sf and 13518 Kelham at $263/sf), so the $238 average is directional. The $16/sf premium is equivalent to $65K on a 4,100 SF home.
5 Notable low-$/SF outliers: 12901 Sodbury Dr (8,334 sf, built 2013, $150/sf) — the largest home in the dataset at roughly double the neighborhood median size. 12700 Edenfield Ct (4,767 sf, built 2015, $155/sf) — reason for discount unclear from data alone; may reflect condition, lot, or motivated seller. These two sales pull the 2009–2013 and 2014–2017 4,500+ SF averages substantially below where they would otherwise fall.
6 Sale-year overall: 2024 sales avg $215/sf (n=9), 2025 sales avg $229/sf (n=25). Removing the two extreme low-$/SF 2024 sales (12901 Sodbury $150/sf and 12700 Edenfield $155/sf) raises the 2024 average to $228/sf — essentially flat vs. 2025's $229/sf. The apparent 6.5% increase is therefore likely overstated.
7 The 2004–2007 cohort shows an apparent −$29/sf decline from 2024 ($248, n=2) to 2025 ($219, n=15). The 2024 base of n=2 includes 4424 Hanwell Ct ($252/sf, 6,657 sf) and 3013 Hedgeway Pl ($243/sf, 3,762 sf). Both traded at above-median $/SF for their size tiers, making the 2024 base atypically high rather than 2025 being low.